Turkey: Civil War After the Elections?
Of course, no one can predict exactly how post-election Turkey will develop. However, it can be reasonably assumed that post-election Turkey awaits a period of internal, civil unrest based on very likely developments arising from many facts and the situation that is developing, some mentioned among the following:
1. In the last two years or so, as well as in the run-up to the elections, all serious Turkish opinion polls, both internal and external, show a victory for the alliance of six opposition parties led by Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, head of the Republican People’s party, in the Presidential elections and show them gaining a relative majority in the Turkish National Assembly.
2. It will prove extremely difficult for R. T. Erdogan and the regime he has imposed on Turkey in perfect cooperation with the fascists of Devlet Bahçeli and organized crime to hand over power, not only because their privileges are at risk, but also because they are threatened with persecution, imprisonment, and (if the death penalty is reinstated) the gallows.
3. The system imposed on Turkey rigidly controls the entire public sector and about 95% of mass media outlets. State television not only does not broadcast opposition speeches or announcements but refuses to broadcast even paid advertising!
4. Starting with the rise of R.T. Erdogan in power until the year 2014, all elections resulted in victories of R.T. Erdogan and were based on broad popular appeal. But after the shocking events of 2013 (Gezi Park, major scandals involving personally Erdogan along with sons and daughters, et al.), it was time for R.T. Erdogan to descend from the “democracy train” and get onboard the “manipulation train”. From 2014 to 2019, in eight crucial elections, the “official” results reported by Anadolu Agency were reached – according to an agreement – from the Coordinating Polling Center of the ruling Erdogan’s Justice and Development (AK) party, i.e. an authentic application of the popular expression “he who pays the piper calls the tune!” When the opposition was finally “aroused” in the 2019 municipal elections, it sent representatives and observers to the most important polling stations thus managing to win many municipality – strongholds, such as Ankara and Istanbul.
5. The same “system” of counting votes will be applied to the presidential and parliamentary elections of 2023…except that this time the opposition parties are for the first time planning the operation of their own vote-counting system, with a gigantic mobilization and the presence of up to three delegates in each of the 190,000 polling stations.
6. It is very likely that on election night we will hear completely different results from political party operatives, as is usually the case with higher education student elections in Greece.
7. It is also very likely that the elections for President of the Republic will go to a second round on May 28, 2023, not because the leader of the opposition will not win, but because the results given by the Anadolu Agency, i.e. the party apparatus of the AKP, will simply say that Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu leads by a small margin.
8. Hakan Fidan, (head of the National Intelligence Organization called by its Turkish initials MİT) is the hidden face for all corrupt matters of the Presidential palace. From the basements of MİT he has launched various “actions” as well as polarization activities aimed at a disorientation from Turkey’s major problems that will continue until the eve of the elections. We are already witnessing shooting attacks on party offices, verbal attacks on politicians or opposition rallies, deliberately deceptive incendiary attacks on AKP offices, systematic encouragement of religious discord, and expected more covert activities as election day approaches. Of course, Erdogan’s exuberant promises of the “moon and the stars”, along with classic methods of fraud such as double voting, the “Turkification” of refugees, theft of votes, etc. are expected to complete the landscape of the upcoming elections – alaturka –the Turkish style!
9. The Erdogan regime is expected to present any result of the polls as a “victory” for R. T. Erdogan. The fully Erdogan controlled Supreme Electoral Council will declare R. T. Erdogan the “winner” of the Presidential elections and his various “friends” (e.g. Russia, Azerbaijan, Pakistan, Qatar, etc.) and satellite friends (e.g. Ersin Tatar – a Turkish Cypriot politician of occupied Northern Cyprus) will rush to “congratulate” him, giving “prestige” and “recognition” to his self-proclamation as the winner of the elections.
Within this context, it is reasonable to expect a period of very intense internal civil unrest, since both the opposition and mainly Western countries will not view with ordinary empathy Erdogan’s remaining in Ankara’s palace “just because he wants to”.
The new Turkish lira is at its worst exchange rate since it was first released, inflation is in the triple digits (officially double digits) and the human and economic consequences of the devastating earthquake of February 6, 2023 continue to bring Turkish society to its knees.
Faced with such a state of affairs, Greek-Turkish relations are expected to go through a significant period of calm before the storm.
But the storm will constantly hang over Turkey’s relations with Greece and Cyprus,
- As long as Turkey does not recognize, (as does almost the whole world), either the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea or the Republic of Cyprus (of which it was supposed to be a “guarantor power”).
- As long as it does not lift the casus belli against Greece and does not give up the fantasies of rebuilding a neo-Ottoman empire in the 21st century, recognizing the Treaty of Lausanne not only where it suits it but also where it does not interest it at all.
- As long as Turkey does not withdraw from the territories of the Republic of Cyprus the occupying army and the settlers it installed there.
- As long as it imagines itself a “superpower” with territorial “claims” against its neighbors.
In the face of all this, the only safe way to proceed remains for a continuous increase in the deterrent force formed between Greece and Cyprus and the strong alliances based on common interests. They are simply the strongest shield of protection for every pseudo-bully in our neighborhood!
Translated by Prof. Ellene (Eleni) Phufas-Jousma
*Leonidas Koumakis: Jurist, Author, Columnist-Analyst, member of the International Hellenic Association. His timeless autobiographical book The Miracle-A Real Story which refers to the methodical extermination of Hellenism in Constantinople by the Turkish state is available completely free of charge in the IHA electronic library, both in Greek and English.
Τα άρθρα που δημοσιεύονται στην ιστοσελίδα του ΙΗΑ εκφράζουν αποκλειστικά τους συγγραφείς – μέλη του ΙΗΑ. Η ιστοσελίδα του ΙΗΑ δεν λογοκρίνει, ούτε επεμβαίνει σε άρθρα – κείμενα των μελών του ΙΗΑ.